Maio 2021 vol. 8 num. 2 - V Encontro Nacional de Economia Industrial e Inovação

Artigo completo - Open Access.

Idioma principal | Segundo idioma

Comercio con China: composición de la cesta comercial y crecimiento económico en países Latinoamericanos

Trade with China: trade basket and economic growth in Latin America

Diniz, Márcia Jucá T. ; Cardozo, Mónica Liseth ; Arteaga, Julio César ;

Artigo completo:

El ingreso de China como miembro de la Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) en noviembre de 2001 profundizó la relación comercial Latinoamérica (LATAM) – China, basada en el intercambio de commodities latinoamericanas por manufacturas provenientes de China. Así, este trabajo analiza el impacto de la composición de la cesta comercial LATAM – China sobre el crecimiento económico de los países latinoamericanos. Con base en una función de producción Cobb-Douglas, la productividad es explicada por las exportaciones destinadas a China, las importaciones provenientes de China y, otras variables de control. Se utiliza como variable dependiente el PIB no exportador a China para remover el efecto de las exportaciones sobre las cuentas nacionales y obtener el efecto de las exportaciones vía productividad. Se aplican técnicas de regresión lineal con datos panel sobre 23 países latinoamericanos para el periodo 2002 – 2017. Considerando las diferencias estructurales entre países de la región, los ejercicios son aplicados en dos paneles separados, uno correspondiente a países de Sudamérica (SA) y el segundo a México, países de Centroamérica y Caribe (MCC). Las exportaciones destinadas a China son desagregadas en tres grandes grupos: (1) productos primarios y manufacturas basadas en recursos naturales (commodities), (2) manufacturas de baja tecnología y, (3) manufacturas de media y alta tecnología. Por su parte, las importaciones provenientes de China son agrupadas en: (1) bienes de consumo, (2) bienes intermediarios e, (3) bienes de capital. Los resultados indican que las exportaciones destinadas a China de manufacturas de baja tecnología inhiben el crecimiento económico de SA. También, las exportaciones de commodities inducen efectos negativos sobre el crecimiento económico de MCC. Por otro lado, se obtiene que las importaciones provenientes de China de bienes de consumo y de capital estimulan el crecimiento económico de SA mientras que las importaciones de bienes intermediarios ejercen este efecto en MCC. Se concluye que el comercio con China favorece el crecimiento económico de Latinoamérica solo a través de las importaciones provenientes de China, una que estas son más diversificadas y poseen mayor valor agregado que las exportaciones latinoamericanas destinadas a China.

Artigo completo:

China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in November 2001 intensified the Latin American (LATAM) - China trade relationship, based on the exchange of Latin American commodities for Chinese manufactures. Thus, this paper seeks to analyze the impact of the composition of the LATAM - China trade basket on Latin American economic growth. Based on a Cobb-Douglas function, productivity is expressed as a function of exports to China, imports from China and other control variables. The dependent variable used is the non-export-to-China GDP to remove the effect of exports on national accounts and obtain the effect of exports via productivity. Regression techniques are applied with panel data on 23 Latin American countries for the period 2002 - 2021. Considering the structural differences among countries in the region, the empirical exercises are applied in two separate panels, the first corresponds to the countries of South America (SA) and the second to Mexico, Central American and Caribbean countries (MCC). Exports to China are disaggregated into three broad groups: (1) primary products and natural resource based manufactures (commodities), (2) low technology manufactures and, (3) medium and high-technology manufactures; while imports are grouped into: (1) consumer goods, (2) intermediate goods and, (3) capital goods. The results indicate that low-tech manufacturing exports inhibit SA economic growth. Also, commodity exports induce negative effects on MCC economic growth. On the other hand, imports of consumer goods and capital goods from China stimulate the growth of SA while imports of intermediate goods induce this effect in MCC. The conclusion is that trade with China favors the economic growth of Latin America only through imports from China; since these are more diversified and more elaborate than the Latin American exports to China.

Download (PDF)

Palavras-chave: China, Latinoamérica, composición de cesta comercial, crecimiento económico.,

Palavras-chave: China; Latin America; composition of the trade basket; economic growth,

DOI: 10.5151/v-enei-754

Referências bibliográficas
  • [1] AGHION, P.; HOWITT, P. A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, v. 60, n. 2, p. 323 – 351, 1992. doi:10.2307/2951599
  • [2] ANDERSON, K.; STRUTT, A. Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030. The World Economy, v. 39, n. 2, p. 172 – 194, 2016. doi: 10.1111/twec.12370
  • [3] BALASSA, B. Exports and economic growth: Further evidence. Journal of Development Economics, v. 5, n. 2, p. 181 – 189, 1978. doi: 10.1016/0304-3878(78)90006-8
  • [4] BANERJEE, A.; RUSSELL, B. (2005). Inflation and measures of the markup. Journal of Macroeconomics, v. 27, n. 2, 289–306, 2005. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2003.10.003
  • [5] BERNAL, R. The Growing Economic Presence of China in the Caribbean. The World Economy, v. 38, n. 9, p. 1409 – 1437, 201 doi: 10.1111/twec.12204
  • [6] CEPAL-STAT. Estadística e Indicadores. Disponível em: https://estadisticas.cepal.org/cepalstat/WEB_CEPALSTAT/estadisticasIndicadores.asp?idioma=e. Acesso em: 20 de junho 2019.
  • [7] CORREA, G. China en el Caribe: estrategia diplomática y de negocios. México y la Cuenca del Pacífico, v. 15, n. 43, p. 15 – 41, 2012. doi: 10.32870/mycp.v15i43.377
  • [8] CRESPO-CUARESMA, J.; WÖRZ, J. On Export composition and Growth. Review of World Economics, v. 141, n. 1, p. 33 – 49, 2005. doi: 10.1007/s10290-005-0014-z
  • [9] DEVADASON, E.; CHANDRAN, V.; MUBARIK, S. Sino–LAC Ties: Trade Relationships, Trade Potentials, and Asymmetric Dependency. Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, v. 53, n. 6, p. 1262 – 1277, 2017. doi: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1233103
  • [10] DREGER, C.; HERZER, D. A further examination of the export-led growth hypothesis. Empirical Economics, v. 45, n. 1, p. 39 – 60, 2013. doi: 1007/s00181-012-0602-4
  • [11] DURÁN, J.; ALVAREZ, M. Indicadores de comercio exterior y política comercial: mediciones de posición y dinamismo comercial. (Documento de Proyecto N° 217). Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe [CEPAL]. 2008.
  • [12] EUROPEAN COMMISION (EU) et al. System of National Accounts [SNA] 2008. New York.
  • [13] FEAL, S. Exportaciones a China y crecimiento económico en América Latina, 2015, 190 p. (Teses de doutorado). Departamento de Economía, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Argentina. doi: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4655.4085.
  • [14] GALLAGHER, K.; PORZECANSKI, R. China Matters: China´s Economic Impact in Latin America. Latin American Research Review, v. 43, n. 1, p. 185-200, 2008. Recuperado de https://www.jstor.org/stable/20488114?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
  • [15] GREENAWAY, D.; SAPSFORD, D. What does Liberalisation do for Exports and Growth? Review of World Economics, v. 130, n. 1, p. 152–74, 1994. doi: 10.1007/BF02706014
  • [16] HALPERN, L.; KOREN, M.; SZEIDL, A. Imported Inputs and Productivity. American Economic Review, v. 105, n. 12, p. 3660 – 3703, 2015. doi: 10.1257/aer.20150443
  • [17] HATZICHRONOGLOU, T. Revision of the high-technology sector and product classification. STI Working Papers 1997/2. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 1997. doi: 10.1787/18151965
  • [18] HERZER, D.; NOWAK-LEHMANN, F.; SILIVERSTOVS, B. Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth. The Developing Economies, v. 44, n. 3, p. 306-328, 2006. doi: 10.111/j.1746-1049.2006.00019.x
  • [19] HOU, Y. Latin American Growth and Exports to China. International Economic Journal, v. 33, n. 3, p. 537 – 559, 20 doi: 10.1080/10168737.201626470
  • [20] JENKINS, R. China’s Global Expansion and Latin America. Journal of Latin American Studies, v. 42, n. 4, p. 809 – 837, 2010. doi: 10.1017/S0022216X10001379
  • [21] JENKINS, R.; DUSSEL, E.; MESQUITA, M. The Impact of China on Latin America and the Caribbean. World Development, v. 36, n. 2, p. 235 – 253, 2007. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.06.012
  • [22] JENKINS, R.; BARBOSA, A. Fear for Manufacturing? China and the Future of Industry in Brazil and Latin America. The China Quarterly, v. 209, p. 59 – 81, 2012. doi: 10.1017/S0305741011001482
  • [23] KASAHARA, H.; RODRIGUE, J. Does the use of imported intermediates increase productivity? Plant-level evidence. Journal of Development Economics, v. 87, n. 1, 106 – 118, 2008. doi: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2007.12.008
  • [24] KELLER, W. Trade and the transmission of technology. Working Paper n° 6113. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1997.
  • [25] KELLER, W. Do Trade Patterns and Technology Flows Affect Productivity Growth?. The World Bank Economic Review, v. 14, n. 1, p. 17 – 47, 2000. doi: 10.1093/wber/14.1.17
  • [26] KIM, S.; LIM, H.; PARK, D. Could Imports be Beneficial for Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Republic of Korea. Paper series n° 103. Asian Development Bank, 2007.
  • [27] LALL, S. The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports, 1985-1998. QEH Working Paper Series n°44. University of Oxford, 2000. Recuperado de: https://www.qeh.ox.ac.uk/sites/www.odid.ox.ac.uk/files/www3_docs/qehwps44.pdf
  • [28] LEE, J. (1994). Capital goods imports and long-run growth. Working Paper n° 4725. National Bureau of Economic Research. Recovered from: https://www.nber.org/papers/w4725
  • [29] LEYBOURNE, J. Testing for unit roots using forward and reverse Dickey–Fuller regressions. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, v. 57, n. 4, p. 559-571, 1995. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.1995.tb00040.x
  • [30] MURAKAMI, Y.; HERNÁNDEZ, R. The impacts of China on economic growth: Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Peru. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, v. 41, n. 3, p. 430 – 454, 2018. doi: 10.1080/01603477.2016.1136565
  • [31] OCAMPO, J. Commodity-Led Development in latin America. International Development Policy, n. 9, p. 51-76, 2017. doi: 10.4000/poldev.2354
  • [32] ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT (OECD). ISIC Rev 3 Technology Intensity Definition. Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, 2011.
  • [33] PAVITT, K. Sectoral patterns of technical change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory. Research Policy, v. 13, n. 6, p. 343 – 373, 1984. doi: 10.1016/0048-7333(84)90018-0
  • [34] PRIEDE, M. Import Impact of Economic Growth on Regional Economies. International Proceedings of Economics Development and Research, v. 28, p. 93 – 96, 2012. Recovered: http://www.ipedr.com/list-54-1.html
  • [35] RAY, R.; GALLAGHER, K. China‐Latin America Economic Bulletin. Discussion Paper 2015-9, 2015.
  • [36] ROSALES, O.; HERREROS, S. Trade and trade policy in latin america and the caribbean: recent trends, emerging challenges. Journal of International Affairs, v. 66, n. 2, p. 31 – 49, 2013. Recuperado de https://www.jstor.org/stable/24388284
  • [37] ROSALES, O.; KUWAYAMA, M. China and Latin America and the Caribbean. Santiago: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), 2012.
  • [38] SACHS, J.; WARNER, A. The course of natural resources. European Economic Review, v. 45, n. 4 – 6, p. 827 – 838, 2001. doi: 10.1016/S0014-2921(01)00125-8
  • [39] THE WORLD BANK. The World Bank Data. Disponível em: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS. Acesso em: 18 de agosto de 2019.
  • [40] TIMINI, J.; SÁNCHEZ-ALBORNOZ, A. (2019). The impact of China on Latin America: trade and foreign direct investment channels. Economic Bulletin, n. 2. Disponível em: https://www.bde.es/bde/en/secciones/informes/boletines/Boletin_economic/. Acesso em: 04 de março de 2020.
  • [41] UN COMTRADE. UN Comtrade Database. Disponível em: Recuperado de https://comtrade.un.org/data. Acesso em: 17 de setembro de 2019.
  • [42] UNITED NATIONS. Classification by Broad Economic Categories. Series M No. 53, Rev.4. New York, 2002.
  • [43] VIANNA, A. The impact of exports to China on Latin American growth. Journal of Asian Economics, v. 47, p. 58 – 66, 2016. doi: 10.1016/j.asieco.2016.10.002
Como citar:

Diniz, Márcia Jucá T.; Cardozo, Mónica Liseth; Arteaga, Julio César; "Comercio con China: composición de la cesta comercial y crecimiento económico en países Latinoamericanos", p. 1976-1994 . In: Anais do V Encontro Nacional de Economia Industrial e Inovação (ENEI): “Inovação, Sustentabilidade e Pandemia”. São Paulo: Blucher, 2021.
ISSN 2357-7592, DOI 10.5151/v-enei-754

últimos 30 dias | último ano | desde a publicação


downloads


visualizações


indexações